|
RK |
Team |
ITN-CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
 |
1.73 |
7-0 |
55 (1) |
103 (6) |
Tennessee finally sneaks into our #1 spot. Some may point out
that their running game was held in check by a bad Colts run D,
gaining only 88 yards. How about 8 of their first downs and all
3 of their touchdowns coming on the ground? Flashy no, effective
yes. Much like every other part of this team. |
| 2 |
 |
1.68 |
6-1 |
49.2 (2) |
119 (4) |
Not the
prettiest win, but certainly one of the biggest W's any team has
netted in '08. Their stats are still very easy on the eye, as
they have the overall #1 rated offense and overall #5 rated
defense. How long will those numbers last against 8 straight
opponents with winning records? |
| 3 |
 |
1.62 |
6-2 |
46.6 (3) |
140.7 (1) |
A decent
road win, even if it was against the lowly lions. There is only
one thing that worries us about this team. Washington has been
winning games, but few of them have come easy. Campbell has not
thrown an interception yet in '08, but that is going to change
eventually. Will the W's change as well? |
| 4 |
 |
1.12 |
6-2 |
41.9 (4) |
118.6 (5) |
Held off a
very tough Arizona team to remain perfect at home. They now have
a bye week to rest up and get ready to go on the road, as 3 of
their next 4 will be played away from Bank of America stadium.
With all the other big teams winning and their bye, Carolina
will likely remain comfortably under the radar for some time. |
| 5 |
 |
1.11 |
5-3 |
37.1 (7) |
136.4 (2) |
Some the
fans in Tampa labeled the loss as 'demoralizing.' We wouldn't go
nearly as far as that as everyone had over-demoted Dallas into a
puppet team, something they certainly aren't. Tampa still has
all the pieces to be a force come playoff time, and also has
plenty of opportunities to fix some of their road woes. |
| 6 |
 |
0.75 |
5-3 |
31.3 (13) |
128.8 (3) |
You can
knock the offense for a lack of yards and points, but they did
something they have needed to do all season: commit zero
turnovers. When the offense does that, it sets the stage for all
the talent on their roster to make big plays that lead to even
bigger W's. |
| 7 |
 |
0.67 |
5-2 |
37.9 (5) |
85.5 (10) |
The
offense is shooting the defense in the foot in road games. They
have committed 8 turnovers in their last 2 away games, something
you cannot do and expect to win. If the offense can eliminate
those big mistakes on the road, the defense has shown it can
lead the rest of the team to a win. |
| 8 |
 |
0.67 |
5-2 |
35.7 (10) |
92.5 (7) |
No matter
how you dissect the game, the final word is that Pittsburgh let
a big one get away. On a more positive note, they showed that
they indeed do have the #1 defense in the league, and also that
Moore can be expected to produce and give time for Parker to
fully heal. |
| 9 |
 |
0.42 |
5-2 |
35.2 (11) |
76.6 (14) |
Given the injuries and that Cassell has thrown at least one pick
in 4 of his last 5 starts, New England has to be happy they are
now tied for the lead in the AFC East. It helps when you get
Moss involved too. |
|
10 |
 |
0.37 |
4-3 |
36 (9) |
70.9 (16) |
How good
is Philadelphia? If we had to pick a surprise team to make a big
move in the second half of the season it would be them. They
have the #4 rated offense and #8 rated defense in the league,
plus a +7 turnover margin. If Westbrook stays healthy winning
their division is not out of the question. |
|
11 |
 |
0.32 |
3-4 |
28.9 (17) |
90.4 (8) |
The
Dolphins have been all over our rankings this season, and this
is the second time they have ventured near the top 10. The team
has gained a decent amount of yards but doesn't have the points
to show for it. Being more efficient in their opponents'
territory will not only help them win road games, but contend
for a playoff spot. |
|
12 |
 |
0.30 |
4-3 |
37.4 (6) |
61 (23) |
The Bears will ease back into their
schedule when the Lions come to visit, and will have an
opportunity to get Forte back into sync (Lions run defense
ranked #31) and to shore up their troubles stopping the pass
(Lions passing offense ranked #22). |
|
13 |
 |
0.25 |
4-3 |
29.4 (15) |
83.8 (12) |
Arizona isn't as bad of a road team as everyone thinks. They
played both Washington and Carolina tough before falling behind
late in each game. They now travel to division rival St. Louis
where they will have a chance to use their high powered offense
to silence the critics. |
|
14 |
 |
0.20 |
4-3 |
29.4 (16) |
80.6 (13) |
The game
against Philadelphia was closer than the final score indicated,
and outside of two very costly turnovers was a much better road
performance for them. Atlanta's second half schedule is
workable, especially if they can continue to dominate at home. |
|
15 |
 |
0.07 |
4-3 |
32.4 (12) |
61.3 (22) |
Consecutive games without a turnover from Flacco means
consecutive wins for Baltimore. The defense is that good. Their
running game isn't too shabby either and can be leaned on to do
a large part of the work on offense. |
|
16 |
 |
0.07 |
4-3 |
25.2 (21) |
85.1 (11) |
Fans have
taken the bye week as an opportunity to steam over the lack of
defense, which is understandable considering Denver has the
overall #3 offense but the overall #30 defense. Still, the
offense has to take the blame for the -9 turnover margin, which
is as responsible as anything for some of the losses. |
|
17 |
 |
-0.04 |
4-3 |
36.9 (8) |
39.4 (25) |
As of this
morning (10/29) the Green Bay injury report was blank. This is
definitely a good thing because they will need as healthy of a
defense as possible in their trip down south. So far Rodgers has
done more than an adequate job, but how long will he be able to
keep that up if the run attack continues to struggle? |
|
18 |
 |
-0.11 |
2-5 |
20.1 (27) |
89.1 (9) |
They
couldn't quite pull out the win at New England, but in the
process they proved that their win at Washington was no fluke.
The defense continues to improve under Haslett, and if Jackson
can stay healthy, we think it's still too early to count St.
Louis out of the NFC West race. |
|
19 |
 |
-0.15 |
4-4 |
29.7 (14) |
63.5 (20) |
New
Orleans should be better than a .500 team. We keep coming back
to their struggling run game, which we think is the biggest
cause of their inconsistency. Relying on the pass to win games
has worked against teams like Oakland and San Diego, but it
already has a history of failing against the NFC South. |
|
20 |
 |
-0.19 |
3-4 |
26.8 (19) |
61.9 (21) |
We have to agree with the fans that if
Jacksonville wants to make the playoffs, they have to win their
next two road games. Fortunately those games are against the
only teams left in the NFL without a win. |
|
21 |
 |
-0.20 |
3-4 |
24.1 (22) |
70.2 (17) |
We can
feel Cleveland gaining momentum. They have struggled to stop the
run at times, but have done a more than adequate job keeping
their opposition out of the end zone. Now if the offense could
just start finding the end zone consistently this team could
still have an outside shot at a playoff spot. |
|
22 |
 |
-0.22 |
4-3 |
27.4 (18) |
57.9 (24) |
The fact
that the NY Jets lead the league in interceptions thrown but
still have a winning record says something about this team. They
are probably better than 22nd, but consistent turnovers will
cost them wins on the road against any team and at home against
better teams than Kansas City. |
|
23 |
 |
-0.23 |
3-4 |
24 (23) |
68.2 (18) |
One might
wonder how a team with the 2nd best run defense and the 8th best
run attack is not only being outscored, but also has a losing
record. It's easy to blame the passing game, but we think it's
beyond that. Minnesota is 21st for return yards allowed, 32nd
for punt return yards allowed, and 30th in penalties. |
|
24 |
 |
-0.30 |
3-4 |
21.3 (26) |
72.2 (15) |
Barring a miracle, their will be no division championship to
celebrate. Looking at their schedule, it might take a miracle
for them to just make the playoffs. |
|
25 |
 |
-0.31 |
3-5 |
25.8 (20) |
65.2 (19) |
The pass
defense is now firmly ranked 32nd in the league. Being worse
than both Kansas City and Detroit at something is definitely a
cause for concern. Still, anything is possible in the worst
division in the NFL. |
|
26 |
 |
-0.95 |
2-5 |
22.2 (25) |
23.8 (27) |
Word on
the street is that Russell is improving. We aren't seeing it and
nor are we buying it. The only time Oakland has had more than
200 net yards passing was against San Diego, who has the worst
pass defense in the league. |
|
27 |
 |
-0.99 |
3-4 |
22.8 (24) |
18.9 (28) |
What will
it take for Houston to earn some respect? A road win would be a
good start. Here is an interesting thought: are the Texans the
second best team in the AFC South? |
|
28 |
 |
-1.14 |
2-5 |
17.6 (29) |
25.8 (26) |
So there
is till life in Seattle after all. Or maybe San Francisco is
just a lot worse than we thought. |
|
29 |
 |
-1.29 |
2-6 |
18.5 (28) |
14.1 (30) |
Hill has
now officially taken over at QB. All he needs to do is not throw
the football to the other team and make frequent hand offs to
Gore and San Francisco is instantly a better team. |
|
30 |
 |
-1.48 |
1-6 |
13.5 (30) |
15.2 (29) |
A lot of
experts and fans are praising Kansas City for a hard fought game
on the road. We aren't. They were gifted a +3 turnover margin
and still couldn't take advantage for a win. Not a good sign at
all. |
|
31 |
 |
-1.87 |
0-8 |
3.3 (31) |
1.3 (31) |
We didn't
even know this was possible. Cincinnati is being outscored by
more points than they score. Huh? Cincy is scoring a mere 13
points a game, while their opponents are scoring over 27. How
you turn that into a win is beyond us. |
|
32 |
 |
-1.87 |
0-7 |
3.2 (32) |
1.3 (32) |
We think
Detroit should start rooting for Green Bay to run away with the
Division and lock up a playoff spot early. Playing against the
Packers' second string in week 17 might be their best shot left
at getting a victory in '08. |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
100 |
87.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Buffalo to win |
120 |
81.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML - San
Francisco to win |
150 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Miami to win |
210 |
77.0% |
Win |
$310.00 |
$100.00 |
$210.00 |
| AS - NY
Giants to cover spread |
-110 |
63.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Under -
IND @ HOU |
-110 |
64.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$500.91 |
$600.00 |
$99.09 |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Carolina to win |
-300 |
89.0% |
Win |
$133.33 |
$100.00 |
$33.33 |
| ML - NY
Jets to win |
-115 |
81.0% |
Win |
$186.96 |
$100.00 |
$86.96 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
-170 |
80.0% |
Win |
$158.82 |
$100.00 |
$58.82 |
| ML -
Cleveland to win |
100 |
57.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
71.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Under -
ARI @ NYJ |
-110 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$679.11 |
$600.00 |
$79.11 |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Green Bay to win |
145 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
-135 |
78.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
| ML -
Minnesota to win |
-200 |
81.0% |
Win |
$150.00 |
$100.00 |
$50.00 |
| ML -
Atlanta to win |
-250 |
78.0% |
Win |
$140.00 |
$100.00 |
$40.00 |
| AS -
Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
82.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Over -
OAK @ BUF |
-110 |
58.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
|
|
|
$654.98 |
$600.00 |
$54.98 |
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Oakland to win |
160 |
88.0% |
Win |
$260.00 |
$100.00 |
$160.00 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
100 |
91.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Arizona to win |
-280 |
86.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
| ML -
Denver to win |
-120 |
86.0% |
Win |
$183.33 |
$100.00 |
$83.33 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
92.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Over -
ATL @ TB |
-110 |
58.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$969.96 |
$600.00 |
$369.96 |
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
|
ML - Green Bay to win |
-135 |
80.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
|
ML - Dallas to win |
-280 |
75.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
|
ML - Philadelphia to win |
-425 |
80.0% |
Win |
$123.53 |
$100.00 |
$23.53 |
|
ML - Washington to win |
180 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
AS - Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
60.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
Under - HOU @ PIT |
-110 |
58.5% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$624.23 |
$600.00 |
$24.23 |