|
RK |
Team |
ITN-CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
 |
1.57 |
5-2 |
37.4 (6) |
129.2 (1) |
The Bucs
are doing an excellent job of taking care of business at home.
Now they need to prove that with Garcia at QB the team can win
quality games on the road, and they have a big opportunity to do
so this week when they travel to Dallas. |
| 2 |
 |
1.39 |
5-2 |
40.5 (3) |
106.9 (2) |
Another not so inspiring win drops them
from the top spot. Maybe this team just likes playing close
games. Still, we really like the underlying strength of the
Redskins.
They have the third best rushing
offense, the seventh best rushing defense, and have committed
only 5 turnovers. |
| 3 |
 |
1.35 |
6-0 |
46.3 (1) |
72.2 (10) |
The rush
attack looked ferocious in their win over Kansas City. It gave
us the impression that they can run the ball effectively against
any team in the league. Even more impressive than the rush
attack has been the defense, who is allowing opponents only 11
points per game. No other team is allowing less than 14. |
| 4 |
 |
1.23 |
5-1 |
40.1 (4) |
83.3 (6) |
A healthy
Edwards at QB makes for a very healthy Bills offense. He may not
be league MVP, but he's certainly the Bills'. Meanwhile the rest
of the team continues to be efficient, ranking in the top ten in
kickoff yards allowed, 1st downs allowed, 3rd down %, and in
penalties. |
| 5 |
 |
1.23 |
5-1 |
44.5 (2) |
70.1 (11) |
There are quite a few questions for the Steelers going into
their next game. Will Parker play? Can Moore be effective
against a real defense? Can the injured line protect
Roethlisberger? One thing we do know for sure, Heinz field will
be rocking when the defending Super Bowl champs come to visit
Sunday afternoon. |
| 6 |
 |
0.94 |
5-2 |
34.2 (9) |
98 (3) |
As we expected the Panthers got right back
to their winning ways against New Orleans. There isn't much hype
around their defense, so let us tell you: this team has a mean
D. Only Tennessee has allowed fewer touchdowns, and only
Pittsburgh is better at defending the pass. |
| 7 |
 |
0.86 |
4-2 |
34 (10) |
79.9 (7) |
What is
the best stat Atlanta has coming out of their bye week? Number
of people on their injury report = 0. |
| 8 |
 |
0.79 |
5-1 |
38.8 (5) |
61.8 (13) |
The trip
through lollypop land has officially ended. Combined winning
percentage of remaining opponents: .600. Next scheduled game
against an opponent who is currently under .500: week 17. Oh,
and yes, that week 17 game is on the road. |
| 9 |
 |
0.56 |
4-2 |
30.2 (12) |
74.1 (8) |
Who has
the no. 1 scoring offense in the NFL? Oh, that's right, it's the
Arizona Cardinals. Despite having a -1 turnover margin and
gaining less than 90 rush yards per game on offense, this team
has been able to put points on the board and win games. If they
can fix even one of those two issues they will be a serious
threat in the NFC. |
|
10 |
 |
0.45 |
4-3 |
37.4 (7) |
53.9 (19) |
Speaking of potent offenses, would anyone guess the Bears have
the 3rd highest scoring offense in the league? The problem has
been that opponents have focused on attacking their injury
depleted secondary. If the Bears can get healthy or continue to
create interceptions, they will be in great position to win the
NFC North. |
|
11 |
 |
0.4 |
4-2 |
32.1 (11) |
59.3 (15) |
Every time the Patriots seem to be in trouble they answer with a
big victory. They made a serious shift in the game against the
Broncos towards being a run first offense, and it worked
brilliantly. We think that is a strategy that will continue work
for them and will bring back some of the consistency that they
enjoyed last season. |
|
12 |
 |
0.35 |
4-3 |
26.6 (14) |
84.5 (5) |
We've been knockin the 'Boys since day one, while much of the
media has been riding their bandwagon. Now we get the feeling
the media is going over the top negative on the team. They
aren't that bad folks. Turnovers have murdered them, and they
will put an end to those eventually. It starts with handing the
ball to Barber. |
|
13 |
 |
0.28 |
4-3 |
25.2 (18) |
84.6 (4) |
The game
against New England was just ugly. They have the worst turnover
margin in the league along with the Texans. Combine that with a
porous defense and there is only one thing left to do. Panic. |
|
14 |
 |
0.21 |
3-3 |
27.9 (13) |
60.8 (14) |
When
Westbrook first went down we thought McNabb and the Eagle
offense would be able to win games without him, and so far we
have been proven wrong. The Eagles are looking solid in almost
every area except running the football, making it just that much
more important for Westbrook to return to the lineup. |
|
15 |
 |
0.1 |
4-3 |
36.9 (8) |
32.2 (23) |
One could
almost credit the secondary with saving their team's season
right now. They have come up with some monster interceptions
when the team needed them the most. Now they have the bye week
to get healthy and to figure out how to plug the holes in their
run defense. |
|
16 |
 |
0.07 |
3-3 |
26.1 (16) |
57.7 (16) |
Right now the Jags look like the most capable team in the AFC
South to catch the Titans. They have weathered a tough opening
schedule and some not so hot play to be at .500, and should be
6-3 before their big rematch against aforementioned Titans. |
|
17 |
 |
0.04 |
2-4 |
20.4 (25) |
73 (9) |
The Rams
are now 2-2 against the once mighty NFC East. We don't think the
last two weeks have been a fluke, but we're not convinced this
is a .500 team yet. They have too many questions to answer on
defense right now. |
|
18 |
 |
0.01 |
3-4 |
26.2 (15) |
63 (12) |
The
Chargers are 26th in the league rushing the football, gaining
just less than 95 yards a game. The last time the Chargers
gained less than 100 yards a game on the ground was in ‘00,
before they drafted Tomlinson. The '08 Chargers are much better
than that 15 loss team, but right now they barely look like a
playoff caliber team. |
|
19 |
 |
-0.18 |
3-3 |
21.9 (23) |
55.8 (18) |
The loss
is a big step backwards for the Colts, who were hoping to keep
pace with the Titans. Now they have to travel to Tennessee and
pull out a road win in order to keep from falling 4 games back.
The way the Colts have struggled to stop the run, that doesn't
seem very likely to happen. |
|
20 |
 |
-0.18 |
2-4 |
21.5 (24) |
57.1 (17) |
Taking one of the last two games would have really helped
Miami's chances of finishing above .500, as they have a
favorable second half schedule. Their inability to stop the pass
has to take most of the blame for those losses. |
|
21 |
 |
-0.3 |
3-4 |
23.8 (21) |
50.8 (20) |
We don't
think losing Bush changes a whole lot for the Saints. In fact it
may help some, as it will force the ball into McAllister’s hands
more often, who has proven much more reliable at creating a
reliable run attack, something this team desperately needs. |
|
22 |
 |
-0.3 |
3-4 |
24 (20) |
49.7 (21) |
Sure the turnovers have hurt, but there is
something more than that bringing down this team. They have
talent on both sides of the ball, and have had production as
well, but never all at the same time or when the team really
needed it. That doesn't speak well for Childress. |
|
23 |
 |
-0.34 |
3-3 |
23.7 (22) |
41.4 (22) |
South Park reference of the day. Evidence: The Jets had by far
their best game running the football, gaining 242 yards on the
ground, but managed to score only 13 points. Johnnie Cochran:
"That does not make sense!" No Johnnie, it doesn't. |
|
24 |
 |
-0.42 |
3-3 |
25.8 (17) |
30.4 (24) |
Amazing what an error free day from Flacco can do for this team.
It's certainly not too late to get into a groove towards a
playoff spot, but we're not at all convinced the offense can be
consistent yet. |
|
25 |
 |
-0.67 |
2-4 |
24.7 (19) |
18.9 (26) |
They tried
their best to squander opportunities that came their way, but in
the end were able to finally take advantage. It's a small start,
but at least it’s a start. |
|
26 |
 |
-0.79 |
2-4 |
19.2 (26) |
28.8 (25) |
It's hard
to berate the Browns even after they lost. They played a tough
game on the road, and showed to us they are capable of winning
more games. |
|
27 |
 |
-1.17 |
2-4 |
17.6 (28) |
11.5 (28) |
No one
gets credit for beating the Lions at home, plus this team lost
the turnover battle, again. |
|
28 |
 |
-1.22 |
2-5 |
18.6 (27) |
6.2 (30) |
We can't
blame the 49er organization for firing Nolan, the team has too
much talent and potential to be squandered. |
|
29 |
 |
-1.35 |
1-5 |
12.8 (30) |
15.2 (27) |
Someone needs to check the game film and make sure the Chiefs
are putting 11 players on the field on defense. How you can be
40% worse than the Lions at anything is beyond us. |
|
30 |
 |
-1.4 |
1-5 |
13.4 (29) |
10.4 (29) |
If
Hasselback can't play this week against San Francisco, it might
be a long time before this team has another shot at a victory. |
|
31 |
 |
-1.76 |
0-7 |
3.6 (31) |
1.4 (31) |
Right now there are twelve teams in the league that gain more
yards passing the football than the Bengals gain passing and
rushing the football combined. |
|
32 |
 |
-1.76 |
0-6 |
3 (32) |
1.2 (32) |
Update! Teams that have beaten the Lions are now a splendid 0-5
the following week. Good luck Houston! |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
100 |
87.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Buffalo to win |
120 |
81.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML - San
Francisco to win |
150 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Miami to win |
210 |
77.0% |
Win |
$310.00 |
$100.00 |
$210.00 |
| AS - NY
Giants to cover spread |
-110 |
63.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Under -
IND @ HOU |
-110 |
64.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$500.91 |
$600.00 |
$99.09 |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Carolina to win |
-300 |
89.0% |
Win |
$133.33 |
$100.00 |
$33.33 |
| ML - NY
Jets to win |
-115 |
81.0% |
Win |
$186.96 |
$100.00 |
$86.96 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
-170 |
80.0% |
Win |
$158.82 |
$100.00 |
$58.82 |
| ML -
Cleveland to win |
100 |
57.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
71.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Under -
ARI @ NYJ |
-110 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$679.11 |
$600.00 |
$79.11 |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Green Bay to win |
145 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
-135 |
78.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
| ML -
Minnesota to win |
-200 |
81.0% |
Win |
$150.00 |
$100.00 |
$50.00 |
| ML -
Atlanta to win |
-250 |
78.0% |
Win |
$140.00 |
$100.00 |
$40.00 |
| AS -
Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
82.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Over -
OAK @ BUF |
-110 |
58.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
|
|
|
$654.98 |
$600.00 |
$54.98 |
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Oakland to win |
160 |
88.0% |
Win |
$260.00 |
$100.00 |
$160.00 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
100 |
91.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Arizona to win |
-280 |
86.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
| ML -
Denver to win |
-120 |
86.0% |
Win |
$183.33 |
$100.00 |
$83.33 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
92.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Over -
ATL @ TB |
-110 |
58.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$969.96 |
$600.00 |
$369.96 |
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
|
ML - Green Bay to win |
-135 |
80.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
|
ML - Dallas to win |
-280 |
75.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
|
ML - Philadelphia to win |
-425 |
80.0% |
Win |
$123.53 |
$100.00 |
$23.53 |
|
ML - Washington to win |
180 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
AS - Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
60.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
Under - HOU @ PIT |
-110 |
58.5% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$624.23 |
$600.00 |
$24.23 |