|
RK |
Team |
ITN-CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
 |
1.77 |
4-2 |
35.3 (3) |
104.8 (1) |
Sometimes a loss exposes a team as a
pretender, and sometimes a loss is just the nature of football.
Yes the Redskins fumbled the ball and the win away last Sunday,
but all the fundamentals of this team are still intact, and they
are still our team to beat in the NFC East. |
| 2 |
 |
1.36 |
4-2 |
31.9 (5) |
94.1 (2) |
The defense
has been getting better as the season goes along at stopping the
run, and the secondary has been adept at winning interceptions.
If you can combine defense like that with a quarterback that is
efficient and doesn't turn the football over in kind, (hint:
Garcia) you have a team that is extremely dangerous. |
| 3 |
 |
1.33 |
5-0 |
39.5 (1) |
54.9 (10) |
While most
polls will have them at No. 1 this week after the fall of the
big guns in the NFC East, we're not so convinced of Tennessee
yet. Although the defense has been fantastic and the offense has
performed when asked, were not sure that will be the case when
they play teams that know how to put points on the board. |
| 4 |
 |
1.25 |
4-1 |
36.1 (2) |
61 (7) |
The stage
is set for Pittsburgh to show they are the team to beat in the
AFC. They have wins over both of their nearest division rivals,
and are close to being a healthy team again. After this week's
matchup at Cincinnati, Pitt plays a 4 game schedule that would
make any team's knees tremble. Embrace it or succumb to it. |
| 5 |
 |
0.85 |
4-2 |
30.2 (7) |
72.1 (4) |
By far the
best team in the NFC West, the Cardinals are almost a lock to
win their division. The rest of their conference will not be so
easy to conquer. The Cardinals running game is a big concern,
and so are the turnovers that keep sneaking up on them.
Fortunately they have plenty of time to work those things out. |
| 6 |
 |
0.79 |
4-2 |
34 (4) |
55.5 (9) |
Are the
Falcons really this good? Almost as telling as their four wins
is both of their losses: at Tampa Bay and at Carolina, venues
where no visiting team has won at in '08. We'd like to see them
be more competitive in those division road games though. Given
the confidence they have in their rush attack, they very likely
will be. |
| 7 |
 |
0.78 |
4-2 |
29.9 (8) |
69.8 (5) |
The 'Boys
actually got a bump in the rankings this week, as they performed
better than we expected in their road trip out west. Here is an
interesting question: Could injuries and losing a few games
actually help Dallas by rallying them to start playing better as
a whole? |
| 8 |
 |
0.78 |
4-2 |
27.6 (13) |
77.4 (3) |
The loss at
Tampa was no surprise; we hinted in last week's rankings that
trouncing a horrible team can actually make it harder to win
your next game. So while everyone is drooling over the other
teams in the NFC South, we expect the Panthers to get right back
to churning out strong victories. |
| 9 |
 |
0.66 |
4-1 |
31.6 (6) |
47.2 (12) |
All good
things to report for Buffalo. A bye week to get the team rested,
team leader and quarterback Edwards included. They also will be
returning home to an eager crowd and despite the somewhat ugly
loss two weeks ago, arrive with a 4-1 record that has them on
top of the AFC East. |
| 10 |
 |
0.57 |
4-2 |
27.6 (14) |
66.3 (6) |
It's
certainly been a confusing year in Denver. We're not sure what
to make of the unbalanced offense or the struggling defense. We
do know that their -4 turnover ratio is going to undermine any
improvements they may make in those areas. |
| 11 |
 |
0.37 |
3-3 |
26.1 (17) |
60.4 (8) |
How do you
turn a disappointing season into a run for the playoffs? Get big
wins on the road, which is exactly what Jacksonville did. They
still have some things to figure out on offense, but the outlook
is much brighter. |
| 12 |
 |
0.3 |
4-1 |
29.8 (9) |
36.1 (22) |
The Giants
tumbled down the rankings this week. Why so much after a loss on
the road? The Giants have played the easiest schedule in the NFL
so far, and haven't convinced Real Points they are really that
good. Also somewhat troubling is that the defense has created
only two turnovers to date. No other team has fewer than four. |
| 13 |
 |
0.24 |
3-3 |
27.9 (12) |
47.2 (14) |
As we
expected, the Eagles defense came to the rescue in the 4th
quarter to steal a win. If the bye week goes well for Westbrook
and he can stay healthy, the Eagles should be able to take
advantage of about as favorable of an upcoming schedule as you
can get for a team that plays in the NFC East. |
| 14 |
 |
0.23 |
3-2 |
25.7 (18) |
45.3 (16) |
Watching
'Neon Leon' return kickoffs and punts has us wondering why the
Jets don't give him more chances to rush the football. The Jets
are gaining only 86 yards a game on the ground, and Favre has 7
interceptions. Yet they find themselves above .500 and should be
5-2 when they travel to face division rivals Buffalo. |
| 15 |
 |
0.22 |
3-2 |
24.3 (20) |
48.8 (11) |
An injury
to Brady shouldn't mean an injury to Moss as well. He's barely a
factor at all, and the Patriots are desperate for some offense.
They really need to find a way to not only get him open more
often, but target him frequently as well. |
| 16 |
 |
0.18 |
3-3 |
28.3 (11) |
42.2 (19) |
What looked
to be a very formidable rush attack has quietly disappeared over
the last few games. It didn't appear to be a problem last week,
but that was because how horrible Detroit played. It is clear
now that they need Forte to have big games in order to win. |
| 17 |
 |
0.12 |
3-3 |
27.4 (15) |
42.2 (20) |
Pretty resounding win against the Patriots
Sunday night. Let's take a look at their season. Two extremely
tight losses. Tomlinson is averaging only 3.7 yards per carry.
No Merrimam, but Rivers is playing well. All of that and they
still managed a .500 record. We think the Chargers are in good
shape. |
| 18 |
 |
0.11 |
3-3 |
26.5 (16) |
45 (17) |
Another
really weird win. Outside of all the fumbling going on, the
Minnesota offense had a respectable night. They have a huge
opportunity to shake up the NFC North when they travel to
Chicago this Sunday. |
| 19 |
 |
0.11 |
3-2 |
23.2 (22) |
47.2 (13) |
We could
sense the frustration being released from some Indy fans when we
were called 'Idiots' for predicting the Colts to win by only 5.
It's been an understandably tough start to the season, and that
win meant a lot. Don't get too giddy yet though. The Colts are
still being outrushed by almost 100 yards a game and that is a
gap that needs to be closed. |
| 20 |
 |
0.07 |
2-3 |
23.5 (21) |
43.9 (18) |
A painful
loss that reminded us of a lot of the heartbreakers the team
went through last year. They may have dropped a little in the
rankings this week, but this team has solid enough fundamentals
and should rebound nicely. |
| 21 |
 |
-0.13 |
3-3 |
24.8 (19) |
37.7 (21) |
Now that
the home stand against so-so opponents is over, we have to ask
again: can New Orleans win football games relying solely on
their passing game? We don't think they can, but they may have
an answer for that with a healthy McCallister. |
| 22 |
 |
-0.16 |
3-3 |
28.6 (10) |
22.8 (23) |
Many fans
will think their placement this low in the rankings is pretty
harsh, but defeating a dismal Seahawks team doesn't prove much
to us, even on the road. The run defense still needs a lot of
work. |
| 23 |
 |
-0.48 |
1-4 |
14 (27) |
46.7 (15) |
The Rams
probably feel like they just won the Super Bowl. The road ahead
gets no easier though, as their next 4 opponents are all above
.500. |
| 24 |
 |
-0.72 |
2-3 |
19.5 (24) |
19.8 (24) |
Looking at
the bottom 10 in the rankings, the Browns are easily our pick to
finish above .500 for the season. They have a real defense, a +4
turnover ratio, and while their offense hasn't been great by any
means, it has shown some significant progress in their last two
games. |
| 25 |
 |
-0.91 |
2-3 |
20.1 (23) |
9.5 (27) |
They have
the best defense in the NFL, and the running game has done its
part. How much longer will it take for Flacco and the passing
game to step it up? |
| 26 |
 |
-1.06 |
2-4 |
19.2 (25) |
6.3 (28) |
This has to
be one of the toughest teams to watch for fans. All that
potential wasted by costly turnovers, and in our opinion pretty
poor play calling. Fans were chanting for Nolan's head well
before last week's ugly ending. |
| 27 |
 |
-1.2 |
1-4 |
12.8 (30) |
17.6 (25) |
The Chiefs
step closer to the bottom of the list during their bye week as
two teams get their first win. |
| 28 |
 |
-1.22 |
1-4 |
16.6 (26) |
5.3 (29) |
Forget
about head coaches, the Raiders look like they need a new
quarterback coach. |
| 29 |
 |
-1.24 |
1-4 |
13.6 (28) |
13.5 (26) |
It’s quite
impressive that the Texans were able to win that game after
committing 4 turnovers. Hint: that will probably be the only
time this season they are able to do that. |
| 30 |
 |
-1.46 |
1-4 |
13.4 (29) |
4 (30) |
Only the
Chiefs have a worse passing offense. Only the Texans have a
worse turnover ratio. |
| 31 |
 |
-1.76 |
0-6 |
3.5 (31) |
1.4 (31) |
We're big
advocates of having a balanced offense, but watching the Bengals
try to run the football makes us think they really should just
try to pass on every down. |
| 32 |
 |
-1.81 |
0-5 |
2.7 (32) |
1.1 (32) |
We feel
something else brewing that is not in favor of the Lions. While
the other teams in the cellar of the NFL have a chance to be
overlooked on any given week, the Lions are playing so bad that
NO ONE is going want to be the first team to lose to them. |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
100 |
87.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Buffalo to win |
120 |
81.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML - San
Francisco to win |
150 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Miami to win |
210 |
77.0% |
Win |
$310.00 |
$100.00 |
$210.00 |
| AS - NY
Giants to cover spread |
-110 |
63.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Under -
IND @ HOU |
-110 |
64.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$500.91 |
$600.00 |
$99.09 |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Carolina to win |
-300 |
89.0% |
Win |
$133.33 |
$100.00 |
$33.33 |
| ML - NY
Jets to win |
-115 |
81.0% |
Win |
$186.96 |
$100.00 |
$86.96 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
-170 |
80.0% |
Win |
$158.82 |
$100.00 |
$58.82 |
| ML -
Cleveland to win |
100 |
57.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
71.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Under -
ARI @ NYJ |
-110 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$679.11 |
$600.00 |
$79.11 |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Green Bay to win |
145 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
-135 |
78.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
| ML -
Minnesota to win |
-200 |
81.0% |
Win |
$150.00 |
$100.00 |
$50.00 |
| ML -
Atlanta to win |
-250 |
78.0% |
Win |
$140.00 |
$100.00 |
$40.00 |
| AS -
Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
82.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Over -
OAK @ BUF |
-110 |
58.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
|
|
|
$654.98 |
$600.00 |
$54.98 |
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Oakland to win |
160 |
88.0% |
Win |
$260.00 |
$100.00 |
$160.00 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
100 |
91.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Arizona to win |
-280 |
86.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
| ML -
Denver to win |
-120 |
86.0% |
Win |
$183.33 |
$100.00 |
$83.33 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
92.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Over -
ATL @ TB |
-110 |
58.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$969.96 |
$600.00 |
$369.96 |
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
|
ML - Green Bay to win |
-135 |
80.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
|
ML - Dallas to win |
-280 |
75.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
|
ML - Philadelphia to win |
-425 |
80.0% |
Win |
$123.53 |
$100.00 |
$23.53 |
|
ML - Washington to win |
180 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
AS - Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
60.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
Under - HOU @ PIT |
-110 |
58.5% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$624.23 |
$600.00 |
$24.23 |