The rankings have begun to take on the
semblance of a major bike race. Everyone starts the race bunched up with
little room separating first to worst. As the race goes on riders
eventually open up a little space between each other, and the large
group from the beginning of the race becomes several different packs of
riders. This is not all that different from the NFL going into week 6.
Leading the league is a group of 4 teams: Washington, NY Giants,
Carolina, and Tennessee. These four have made an early bid to the finish
line, which in this case is a No. 1 seed and home field advantage
throughout the playoffs.
A short distance behind the leaders is a large tightly packed group
of 9 teams that may have fallen a little back, but are certainly not out
of the race (5-13). Trailing them is a scattering of 13 teams constantly
shifting places amongst themselves, but not really making any serious
threats about joining the two groups in front of them (14-26). In the
rear is 6 teams that are already in danger of falling out of the race
completely (27-32).
Our Pick Six suffered it's first setback of the season, going 2-4 and
finishing slightly in the red. Disappointing of course, but we are more
than confident that it will return to its previous winning ways. If you
don't have a membership it's not too late to pick up a
weekly or season subscription. The weekly subscriptions are getting
still being offered for great values so don't miss out on another
winning week with ITN!
See the results for last week's Pick Six
|
RK |
Team |
ITN - CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
Redskins |
1.82 |
4-1 |
36 (5) |
79.9 (1) |
Our
rankings can deny them the top spot no longer. Real Points gives
them the best resume of wins by a fair margin, and their +60
rush yards per game margin over their opponents is very pretty
to look at as well. The schedule eases up for them now, with
their next 3 opponents being a combined 1-11. |
| 2 |
Giants |
1.52 |
4-0 |
48.2 (1) |
29.7 (13) |
Madden '09
video gamers wish they could get a Win Grade as impressive as
the Giants'. With Real Points not so much. Outside of the week 1
win over the 'Skins, the schedule has been pretty light, but
after this week's matchup with the Browns, one could argue they
have the toughest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL. |
| 3 |
Panthers |
1.37 |
4-1 |
36.8 (3) |
57.7 (4) |
They won
their game last week 34-0, yet somehow fell from #1 in the
rankings to #3. Well, playing the Chiefs at home is sort of the
equivalent to a bye. As far as the national media goes this team
is still flying under the radar, something Coach Fox probably
doesn't mind at all. |
| 4 |
Titans |
1.22 |
5-0 |
39.5 (2) |
44.6 (9) |
The way the
defense has been able to create turnovers is very impressive,
and for us is the main reason they remain undefeated. Looking at
the schedule ahead finds only 2 games against opponents with
winning records, making the Titans early favorites to grab the
no. 1 seed in the AFC. |
| 5 |
Steelers |
0.89 |
4-1 |
36.1 (4) |
38.1 (12) |
Even with
all the injuries the offense was able to find some signs of life
and likely has Pittsburgh fans feeling a little more optimistic
about their team's future. With a bye this week and a game at
Cincinnati the following week, the Steelers essentially have 2
weeks to get healthy. |
| 6 |
Buccaneers |
0.8 |
3-2 |
24.6 (14) |
61.5 (2) |
The Bucs
give us the feeling they are on the edge of being really good.
Right now they are a team that wins at home but struggles
against most opponents on the road. If they can limit the
interceptions and can figure out a better way to take advantage
of their 5.3 yards per carry on offense, they can change that. |
| 7 |
Broncos |
0.8 |
4-1 |
28.6 (7) |
51.8 (6) |
Getting the win was great, but this team
is lacking the fundamentals needed to contend for a Super Bowl
title. |
| 8 |
Cardinals |
0.73 |
3-2 |
25.5 (13) |
56.5 (5) |
The offense recovered nicely from a 7
turnover performance in week 4 to zero turnovers against the
Bills, and barely skipped a beat with Boldin on the sidelines. |
| 9 |
Dolphins |
0.68 |
2-2 |
27.4 (10) |
39.7 (8) |
We know it
is hard to get the image of last's year 1-15 Dolphins out of
your mind, but they now have wins over both teams that played in
last year's AFC Championship game. |
| 10 |
Patriots |
0.61 |
3-1 |
25.6 (12) |
40.6 (7) |
Aside from
last year's phenomenal offensive stats, Belichick's Patriots are
usually a team that looks mediocre on paper but wins week after
week. This year is proving to be no different as the Pats are
under the league average in scoring, rushing, and passing on
offense but sport a 3-1 record. |
| 11 |
Jets |
0.56 |
2-2 |
21 (19) |
47.7 (3) |
Using the
bye week to help solve both the woes in their run attack and in
their pass defense would be great, but with Favre at the helm
just solving one of the two might be enough to keep this team in
playoff contention. |
| 12 |
Cowboys |
0.51 |
4-1 |
27.9 (9) |
40.7 (11) |
The Cowboys
won at home but dropped 6 spots in the rankings. Other teams are
winning big games in big ways while this team continues to turn
out so-so performances. |
| 13 |
Bills |
0.51 |
4-1 |
31.6 (6) |
31.5 (14) |
The entire
Buffalo organization seems to be holding its breath over the
injury to Edwards. Fortunately for them they have a bye week to
help heal and sort things out. |
| 14 |
Vikings |
0.27 |
2-3 |
22.1 (15) |
43.7 (10) |
While
visually we're not sure how to access the win Monday night over
the Saints, the Vikings can take assurance in that to our
system, a win is still a win. |
| 15 |
Bears |
0.15 |
3-2 |
27.9 (8) |
24.5 (18) |
The Bears
can make a pretty good case for being the best team in the NFC
North. Their two losses have come by a combined 6 points, and
those two teams they lost to are a combined 7-3. |
| 16 |
Falcons |
0.09 |
3-2 |
26.9 (11) |
24.1 (20) |
Their rush
attack is strong enough to set the stage for a win against
almost any team. Up until the game against Green Bay, the rush
defense had been weak enough to throw any win out the window.
They will have to turn out more performances like that before
we're convinced they are an above .500 team. |
| 17 |
Eagles |
-0.13 |
2-3 |
22 (17) |
26.1 (17) |
Each week
seems to bring more questions than answers, and a more dinged up
Westbrook isn't helping any. Playing in the NFC East, the Eagles
best start finding some answers fast or they will see their shot
at the playoffs vanish quickly. |
| 18 |
Chargers |
-0.15 |
2-3 |
20.8 (20) |
28.1 (15) |
San Diego's defense is not capable of
winning games for them, which means Tomlinson and the rest of
the offense will have to get out of their slump if they are
going to contend for the AFC West division title. |
| 19 |
Saints |
-0.33 |
2-3 |
19.1 (24) |
24.1 (19) |
We have to wonder if the Saints spent the
week watching film of the Lions playing football. |
| 20 |
Colts |
-0.37 |
2-2 |
16.7 (25) |
22.4 (16) |
The Colts
aren't fooling us; this team is in trouble. Aside from showing
some heart by not giving up on a game and pulling a win out of
nowhere against Houston, they showed no signs of fixing the
problems that got them off to a 1-2 start. |
| 21 |
Packers |
-0.47 |
2-3 |
21.5 (18) |
12.1 (23) |
At least
the secondary is intact and playing well. The D-line is
producing fewer than 2 sacks a game, but the secondary is still
holding teams to only 6.4 yards per completion and has 9
interceptions. |
| 22 |
Jaguars |
-0.54 |
2-3 |
20 (21) |
12.5 (22) |
The Jaguars
have a pretty good race going with the Colts and Browns for most
disappointing team of the season. |
| 23 |
Ravens |
-0.59 |
2-2 |
22.1 (16) |
4 (26) |
Another
tough loss that you can't fault the defense for. Flacco is only
a rookie and deserves more time to improve his play, but at the
same time it would be a shame to waste the potential the defense
brings to this team. |
| 24 |
49ers |
-0.69 |
2-3 |
19.5 (22) |
6.9 (24) |
When you
have a young quarterback that is struggling with turnovers and a
running back that is averaging 4.8 yards per carry, it would
seem an easy decision to let the running game do most of the
heavy lifting for your team. Apparenlty the San Francisco
coaching staff has different ideas. |
| 25 |
Raiders |
-0.71 |
1-3 |
19.3 (23) |
5.3 (25) |
Tom Cable
inherits a team with plenty of talent, but seriously lacking in
results. |
| 26 |
Chiefs |
-0.79 |
1-4 |
12.8 (28) |
18.6 (21) |
Yes they
have had injuries at quarterback, but 4.8 yards per completion
and a 54 team QB rating? It barely looks like they are trying
out there. |
| 27 |
Browns |
-1.14 |
1-3 |
14 (26) |
1.6 (27) |
The bye
week might have actually hurt their chances of playing with the
defending Super Bowl champs, as their offense looked to be
gaining some rhythm in the win over Cincinnati. |
| 28 |
Seahawks |
-1.16 |
1-3 |
13.7 (27) |
1.5 (28) |
If you
think things are looking bad in Seattle, just think how bad they
would be if they hadn't played the Rams early in the schedule. |
| 29 |
Rams |
-1.36 |
0-4 |
3.5 (29) |
1.2 (31) |
Even the
bye week goes against the Rams, as they announced on Monday that
their TE McMichael will be out for the remainder of the season. |
| 30 |
Texans |
-1.40 |
0-4 |
3.4 (30) |
0.9 (32) |
While there
really is no good way to lose a game, allowing a team to score
21 points in 2:10 to blow a 17 point lead definitely falls into
the bad way to lose category. |
| 31 |
Bengals |
-1.43 |
0-5 |
2.9 (31) |
1.4 (29) |
The Bengals
separate themselves from a few of the other winless teams by
showing they can at least compete against their opponent on any
given day. The fact that they keep losing all those games almost
makes it worse. |
| 32 |
Lions |
-1.48 |
0-4 |
2.3 (32) |
1.4 (30) |
Detroit has
perfected the slow death technique of football. Play so poorly
that it seeps into your opponents like a poison, and they will
lose their next game! Teams that have beaten the Lions this year
are a perfect 0-3 the following week, and are a paltry 1-5 after
two weeks. |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
100 |
87.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Buffalo to win |
120 |
81.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML - San
Francisco to win |
150 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Miami to win |
210 |
77.0% |
Win |
$310.00 |
$100.00 |
$210.00 |
| AS - NY
Giants to cover spread |
-110 |
63.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Under -
IND @ HOU |
-110 |
64.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$500.91 |
$600.00 |
$99.09 |
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Carolina to win |
-300 |
89.0% |
Win |
$133.33 |
$100.00 |
$33.33 |
| ML - NY
Jets to win |
-115 |
81.0% |
Win |
$186.96 |
$100.00 |
$86.96 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
-170 |
80.0% |
Win |
$158.82 |
$100.00 |
$58.82 |
| ML -
Cleveland to win |
100 |
57.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
71.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Under -
ARI @ NYJ |
-110 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$679.11 |
$600.00 |
$79.11 |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Green Bay to win |
145 |
79.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Baltimore to win |
-135 |
78.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
| ML -
Minnesota to win |
-200 |
81.0% |
Win |
$150.00 |
$100.00 |
$50.00 |
| ML -
Atlanta to win |
-250 |
78.0% |
Win |
$140.00 |
$100.00 |
$40.00 |
| AS -
Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
82.0% |
loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| Over -
OAK @ BUF |
-110 |
58.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
|
|
|
$654.98 |
$600.00 |
$54.98 |
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
| ML -
Oakland to win |
160 |
88.0% |
Win |
$260.00 |
$100.00 |
$160.00 |
| ML -
Tennessee to win |
100 |
91.0% |
Win |
$200.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
| ML -
Arizona to win |
-280 |
86.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
| ML -
Denver to win |
-120 |
86.0% |
Win |
$183.33 |
$100.00 |
$83.33 |
| AS -
Oakland to cover spread |
-110 |
92.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
| Over -
ATL @ TB |
-110 |
58.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$969.96 |
$600.00 |
$369.96 |
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.
|
Bet to make |
On
odds of |
Probability of being correct |
Result |
Winnings |
Invested |
Net
Winnings |
|
ML - Green Bay to win |
-135 |
80.0% |
Win |
$174.07 |
$100.00 |
$74.07 |
|
ML - Dallas to win |
-280 |
75.0% |
Win |
$135.71 |
$100.00 |
$35.71 |
|
ML - Philadelphia to win |
-425 |
80.0% |
Win |
$123.53 |
$100.00 |
$23.53 |
|
ML - Washington to win |
180 |
60.0% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
AS - Green Bay to cover spread |
-110 |
60.0% |
Win |
$190.91 |
$100.00 |
$90.91 |
|
Under - HOU @ PIT |
-110 |
58.5% |
Loss |
$0.00 |
$100.00 |
$100.00 |
|
|
|
|
$624.23 |
$600.00 |
$24.23 |