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NFL week 5 - A little geography

Forget AFC vs. NFC, how about West vs. East? Maybe the air really is thinner out West. The NFC and AFC West division teams are giving up an average of 232 yards per game in the air. The rest of the league is giving up just 197. That is a huge gap, and it translates directly to wins. Those same two divisions are averaging 1.25 wins through the first four weeks of the season, while the rest of the league is averaging a full 2 wins. Heck if it wasn't for Buffalo or Tennessee you could just dump any team that wasn't within 300 miles of the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico off the list of proven contenders.

Unlike many NFL teams our Pick Six is a consistent winner. Another 4-2 showing and solid profit in week 4 makes it four consecutive weeks of finishing in the black. Bet you wish your 401K plan could do that. If you don't have a membership it's not too late to pick up a weekly or season subscription. The weekly subscriptions are getting still being offered for great values so don't miss out on another winning week with ITN!

See the results for last week's Pick Six

  Team ITN-CB Rec WG RP Notes
1 Panthers 1.76 3-1 34.9 (2)  44 (2)  With a third down conversion rate of 25% (29th) and 39 penalties (32nd) this team is either scary good or headed for a grand collapse.
2 Redskins 1.36 3-1 29.9 (6)  41.8 (4)  That was definitely an effective use of their offensive output against Dallas. We were skeptical about this team's potential, and they proved to us that they have plenty more to offer. If they continue to outrush opponents by 40 yards a game and keep improving upon their +6 turnover ratio, they will be the team to beat in the NFC Beast.
3 Bills 1.32 4-0 34.7 (3)  31.1 (7)  Buffalo’s offense is 20th in rush yards, 12th in pass yards, but 8th in scoring.  On defense they are 17th in rush yards, 6th in pass yards, but 5th in scoring. This is a team that knows how to make the most of its opportunities.
4 Buccaneers 1.19 3-1 26 (7)  44.4 (1)  Rushing the football 41 times against Green Bay was a big step forward for the offense. The next big step is figuring out how to stop throwing interceptions. 
5 Giants 1.04 3-0 32.9 (4)  19.9 (12)  Ok, so let's get this straight. Defending champions beat Washington already, are out rushing their opponents by over 70 yards a game, and they aren't the team to beat in the NFC Beast? Yup, that's right. Giants fans have to be loathing the lack of respect by now.
6 Cowboys 0.92 3-1 22.5 (12)  43.3 (3)  We don't care how good and flashy the offense is, if they don't improve upon their -4 turnover ratio they aren't going to be winning any titles.
7 Titans 0.89 4-0 36.6 (1)  14.4 (18)  They have the largest margin of victory in the league and the number one ranking by Win Grade right now, but are a 4-0 team that is ranked 18th by Real Points. Until they get a quality win under their belts the rankings will hold them back from the top spots.
8 Broncos 0.78 3-1 22.9 (11)  38.3 (5)  Eventually the offense was going to miss a step and need the defense to save them. We didn't think that it was going to happen against Kansas City, but if it did we figured the Chiefs were the perfect opponent for the D to gain some confidence. Not the case by a long shot.
9 Steelers 0.75 3-1 31.3 (5)  20.9 (16)  Pittsburgh joins the Patriots as the only other team to have a winning record scoring fewer than 20 points a game. That is a formula that will bite them on the road and eat their chances of winning a division title.
10 Patriots 0.58 2-1 23.7 (8)  23.3 (8)  How great can a bye be? The Patriots escaped the media spotlight for a week, got a chance to really figure out what its game plan will be on offense, and moved up 4 spots in the rankings.
11 Chargers 0.33 2-2 21.4 (15)  28.1 (9)  For once they were on the right side of a late game comeback. If the pass defense continues to struggle they are going to find themselves needing a lot more 4th quarter heroics, which we don't think they are capable of handling.
12 Dolphins 0.25 1-2 17.2 (23)  25.3 (6)  Like the Patriots, the bye should have treated Miami well. The only thing that they could complain about is the Bills and Jets both winning.
13 Eagles 0.23 2-2 23.2 (10)  21.3 (15)  The saying 'football is a game of inches' can definitely be applied to their loss at Chicago. Buckhalter and co. did a decent job rushing the football, but we can't see Westbrook being denied the end zone 3 straight times from the 1 yard line.
14 Saints 0.18 2-2 19.7 (19)  26.8 (11)  We'd love to tell you that this team has an explosive enough passing game to be a contender in the NFC, but they aren't. Sure they are capable of beating almost any team, but they will continue to be very inconsistent without a rushing attack or a solid defense. 
15 Cardinals 0.15 2-2 19 (22)  27.1 (10)  A very similar team to the Saints, but we actually think they have better fundamentals and a better chance of winning their division. However they will have to prove that all the turnovers committed in the last two games were not the norm.
16 Jets 0.11 2-2 21 (16)  22.3 (14)  Despite beating a 2-1 team by 22, the Jets didn't improve their ranking any from last week. They are averaging only 3.8 yards per carry on offense, with their longest carry being 16 yards. That is not going to get them to the playoffs.
17 Bears -0.01 2-2 20.9 (17)  18.6 (17)  The goal-line stand was impressive, but we think Chicago got away with one at home. They turned the ball over 4 times and Philadelphia failed to take advantage, which is something the Bears can't count on happening against future opponents.
18 Vikings -0.19 1-3 15.1 (24)  24.9 (13)  Win grade sees potential in Minnesota, and we have to agree. Frerotte looked good driving the football late in that game, but the turnovers ultimately killed their chance of a win. If they can fix that the NFC North is still up for grabs.
19 Ravens -0.29 2-1 23.4 (9)  4 (24)  Baltimore is almost certainly better than 19th, but they are being held back by their weak schedule. They just missed a huge opportunity to defeat Pittsburgh, but there are plenty of more chances to come for this team.
20 49ers -0.37 2-2 20.8 (18)  8.3 (21)  One would think playing in the NFC West would mean having a relatively easy schedule. This is not the case for San Francisco. They are a young and improving team, but we're not sure they can improve fast enough to contend for a playoff spot.
21 Packers -0.38 2-2 22.2 (13)  5.1 (25)  Green Bay has been out rushed in 3 of their 4 games so far, and by a fair margin. The aerial attack and defense is solid, but can't be counted on to overcome the 60 yards per game deficit being created by the running game. 
22 Falcons -0.46 2-2 22.1 (14)  3 (26)  Win Grade hasn't given up on Atlanta yet, but wins at home against Kansas City and Detroit aren't convincing anyone they are for real. 
23 Raiders -0.56 1-3 19.3 (21)  5.5 (22)  There is no question that Oakland has the players to be a winning football team. The coaching staff has to do better, and if that means Kiffin is gone, so be it. 
24 Jaguars -0.56 2-2 19.3 (20)  5.4 (23)  Their stats hold nothing inspiring for us, and defeating a 0-2 team in overtime at home isn't helping any either.
25 Chiefs -0.73 1-3 13 (27)  12.9 (19)  The win was a big surprise to us, and a nice surprise for the fans. The rush defense is still a big concern, but on the other side of the ball the rush attack might be something this team can build on.
26 Colts -0.75 1-2 12.9 (28)  9.4 (20)  No one wants to really believe Indianapolis is that bad this year. Injuries aren't helping them any, but the numbers they have just stink.
27 Seahawks -1.06 1-2 14.5 (25)  1.8 (27)  Sure the rush attack and defense looks solid on paper. But those numbers are coming from playing spotty opponents. Their upcoming trip to East Rutherford CC will show us where Seattle is really at.
28 Browns -1.09 1-3 14 (26)  1.6 (28)  We're glad they got the win last week. Much like the opening three weeks of the season, the upcoming schedule is just brutal.
29 Rams -1.36 0-4 3.5 (29)  1.4 (29)  Omigod! A ranking where they aren't last! St. Louis fans you can send us holiday cards to info@itnsports.com
30 Texans -1.36 0-3 2.9 (30)  1.2 (30)  Outside of their dismal run defense there is some hope for Houston.
31 Bengals -1.36 0-4 2.6 (31)  1.1 (31)  Congratulations Cincinnati! You are the only team in the NFL to be giving up fewer points than the league average and still not have a win.
32 Lions -1.36 0-3 2.3 (32)  0.9 (32)  A -6 turnover ratio, a -150 rushing yards per game margin, and an
-18 points per game scoring margin. We think they just won the PGA Fedex Cup!

Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 4

NFL Picks for Week 5 - Buy Now ($5.00)

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Carolina to win -300 89.0% Win $133.33 $100.00 $33.33
ML - NY Jets to win -115 81.0% Win $186.96 $100.00 $86.96
ML - Tennessee to win -170 80.0% Win $158.82 $100.00 $58.82
ML - Cleveland to win 100 57.0% Win $200.00 $100.00 $100.00
AS - Oakland to cover spread -110 71.0% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
Under - ARI @ NYJ -110 60.0% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
$679.11 $600.00 $79.11

ROI for NFL week 3: 13.2%
ROI Year to Date: 22.0%

(ROI: Return on Investment)


Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 3

We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%) on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.

NFL Picks for Week 5 - Buy Now ($5.00)

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Green Bay to win 145 79.0% loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
ML - Baltimore to win -135 78.0% Win $174.07 $100.00 $74.07
ML - Minnesota to win -200 81.0% Win $150.00 $100.00 $50.00
ML - Atlanta to win -250 78.0% Win $140.00 $100.00 $40.00
AS - Green Bay to cover spread -110 82.0% loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
Over - OAK @ BUF -110 58.0% Win $190.91 $100.00 $90.91
$654.98 $600.00 $54.98

ROI for NFL week 3: 9.2%
ROI Year to Date: 24.9%

(ROI: Return on Investment)

Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 2

Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee profit for the week.

Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest you read through the posts on our affiliated blog, 'A bettor wager'.

NFL Picks for Week 5 - Buy Now ($5.00)

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Oakland to win 160 88.0% Win $260.00 $100.00 $160.00
ML - Tennessee to win 100 91.0% Win $200.00 $100.00 $100.00
ML - Arizona to win -280 86.0% Win $135.71 $100.00 $35.71
ML - Denver to win -120 86.0% Win $183.33 $100.00 $83.33
AS - Oakland to cover spread -110 92.0% Win $190.91 $100.00 $90.91
Over - ATL @ TB -110 58.0% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
$969.96 $600.00 $369.96

ROI for NFL week 2: 61.7%
ROI Year to Date: 32.8%

(ROI: Return on Investment)

Pick Six Betting Details for NFL week 1

As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out. Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at A bettor wager and at our article NFL picks transformed into winning bets.

Bet to make On odds of Probability of being correct Result Winnings Invested Net Winnings
ML - Green Bay to win -135 80.0% Win $174.07 $100.00 $74.07
ML - Dallas to win -280 75.0% Win $135.71 $100.00 $35.71
ML - Philadelphia to win -425 80.0% Win $123.53 $100.00 $23.53
ML - Washington to win 180 60.0% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
AS - Green Bay to cover spread -110 60.0% Win $190.91 $100.00 $90.91
Under - HOU @ PIT -110 58.5% Loss $0.00 $100.00 $100.00
$624.23 $600.00 $24.23

ROI for NFL week 1: 4.0%
ROI Year to Date: 4.0%

(ROI: Return on Investment)