|
RK |
Team |
ITN-CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
 |
2.32 |
10-0 |
74.8 (1) |
298.1 (1) |
Over
the last few weeks a majority of the public has been banking on
Tennessee to lose, and after each game they are left with empty
pockets. The Titans may not have the flash and pizzazz of a
typical powerhouse NFL team, but they have strength in all the
right areas. Continue to doubt them at your own peril.
Stat:
the Titans have amassed a deadly combo of a +10 turnover
margin and a +10 margin of victory. |
| 2 |
 |
1.85 |
9-1 |
66.9 (2) |
265.5 (2) |
It
might scare much of the NFL to know how closely this team
resembles the Denver Broncos team that won Super Bowls XXXII and
XXXIII. The Broncos in ’97 were heavy underdogs to the Packers,
but emerged as champions, and then returned to defend their
title in ’98. Going into week 12 of the season the ’98 Broncos
were averaging 167 yards on the ground, and the ’08 Giants are
averaging 173. The Broncos defense was allowing only 93 yards on
the ground per game, the Giants are allowing 91. The Broncos
were scoring 33 points a game while allowing 18; the Giants are
scoring 29 while allowing 17. The Broncos were 10-0 and sported
a +7 turnover margin while the Giants are currently 9-1 with a
+7 turnover margin. Can any of the other 31 teams stop history
from repeating itself? |
| 3 |
 |
1.03 |
6-4 |
58.8 (3) |
179.4 (10) |
Finishing drives continues to be a mystery for this team, and
also continues to cost them wins. Washington had built itself a
solid foundation earlier in the year, but that foundation has
been steadily crumbling over the past few weeks and now is on
the verge of collapsing. Whether its play calling that is the
problem or players failing to execute, something needs to change
to get the offense going again.
Stat: Washington
joins Denver as the only teams to have a winning record with a
negative scoring margin. |
| 4 |
 |
1.03 |
7-3 |
46.1 (8) |
244.6 (4) |
Certainly not the most convincing win at home, but a win
nonetheless. Somehow the offense never seems to produce to the
level it is capable of. Over the past few weeks it had been
turnovers holding them back, this week it was penalties.
They are running out of time to figure it out too, as
after a short week and Thursday night game against Cincy,
Pittsburgh’s remaining opponents are a combined 32-18 (.640).
Stat:
Pittsburgh’s defense is 1st against the run, 1st against the
pass, and 2nd in scoring. |
| 5 |
 |
0.85 |
7-3 |
44.8 (9) |
223.3 (5) |
With
their statement win over New England the NY Jets have broken
free of the pack to take a solid lead in the AFC East. Again we
have to point out how improved the run attack is, and how much
it helps this team to win games. Jones and Washington are
proving to be one of the better tandems in the league, and
continue to improve as the season rolls along. If the Jets
manage to knock off the undefeated Titans this week, expect to
hear early whispers of them going to the Super Bowl.
Stat:
the Jets 45 red zone appearances are behind
only the Cardinals 47 and the Giants 49. |
| 6 |
 |
0.75 |
7-3 |
46.2 (7) |
200.8 (7) |
With
Atlanta falling last week, the battle for the NFC South is
essentially a two team race, and Tampa’s win over stingy
Minnesota helped them keep pace with division leader Carolina.
The offense struggled to put the ball in the end zone, and
missed several opportunities to ice the game. We aren’t too
worried about that though, as the RB core of Tampa will only get
healthier and better as the season goes along, which should open
up things for Garcia in the red zone.
Stat: Tampa
Bay has the #4 ranked overall defense. |
| 7 |
 |
0.72 |
8-2 |
48.3 (5) |
185 (9) |
Two
not so impressive wins in a row have allowed a few teams to slip
in front of Carolina in the rankings. Detroit gave this team all
they could handle, which surprised us and it looked like it
surprised the Carolina players as well. More disturbing than
anything are back to back games where the offense has had less
than 100 yards passing, which to us overshadows the big games by
the RB’s. Carolina certainly has the players to have a solid
balanced offense, but with the toughest remaining schedule of
all the teams in the NFC South, they need it to come out of
hiding fast.
Stat:
the defense has allowed
opponents to complete only 4 of their 14 (29%) fourth down
attempts (3rd). |
| 8 |
 |
0.67 |
6-4 |
33 (18) |
257.3 (3) |
The
only thing that mattered this weekend was that Dallas emerges
from Washington with a win, and they did just that. How they got
that win may not have been important, but it does give us an
idea as to what we can expect from the pre-season Super Bowl
favorites, and that is that the offense is still prone to
turnovers and struggles to be consistent, which undermines their
solid defense. If that isn’t clear enough for you, then this
should be. Dallas will not be playing in the Super Bowl this
year.
Stat:
the defense is allowing opponents to
score on 94% of their trips to the red zone (30th). |
| 9 |
 |
0.58 |
7-3 |
51.5 (4) |
145.5 (14) |
Arizona took care of business by dumping the Seahawks in
Seattle, and set the stage for their own mini Super Bowl next
week when the defending champion Giants comes to town. Expect
the University of Phoenix Stadium to be absolutely rocking
Sunday afternoon in what should be a great matchup. Everyone is
keyed in on the Cardinal aerial attack, but we want to remind
you that this team also has a pretty solid defense, and is 7th
in the league against the run.
Stat:
Arizona’s offense is ranked 2nd overall
behind the NY Giants. |
|
10 |
 |
0.52 |
6-4 |
37.9 (16) |
207.7 (6) |
While their win against Houston wasn’t easy, Indianapolis’
remaining schedule certainly will be. They have only one game
that is against an above .500 team, and that is Tennessee in
week 17. Still, Indianapolis had better take care of business as
teams in the AFC East and North will be ready to scoop up their
playoff spot if they slip up. Finding a way to shore up their
25th ranked run defense is the key.
Stat: the rush
attack is averaging 78 yards a game, and is the worst in the
league. |
|
11 |
 |
0.49 |
6-4 |
46.4 (6) |
158.7 (12) |
Miami has won four in a row and sits just outside of a playoff
spot, but in that stretch has done little to convince us they
are capable of winning a playoff game. In the past two games
Miami has outgained their opponents by a fair margin, 743-484,
but has won those games by a total of 4 points. This is not a
very good use of your offensive and defensive power. Most of the
trouble has come from a lack of turnovers created by the defense
and poor red zone efficiency.
Stat: the offense is
averaging 7.9 yards per pass attempt (4th). |
|
12 |
 |
0.47 |
6-4 |
44.7 (10) |
163.4 (11) |
Even
though they were blown out by the Giants last week, we think
this game helped Baltimore in that it gave them a good idea of
where they stand and what they need to work on. If you listen to
linebacker R. Lewis speak you have to be encouraged by the
mentality the team shows. Also, the game changing interception
thrown by Flacco was not his fault and points towards him being
capable of leading the offense in big games.
Stat: the defense has recovered just 2 fumbles all year, which ties
them for the fewest in the league with Green Bay. |
|
13 |
 |
0.28 |
6-4 |
33.1 (17) |
195.6 (8) |
The
win in Atlanta goes a long, long way towards winning the AFC
West and thus earning a spot in the playoffs. While the defense
played well, the credit should go to the offense for not turning
over the football for the first time since week one.
Stat:
Denver commits 2 turnovers on offense for every 1 it forces
on defense. |
|
14 |
 |
0.26 |
6-4 |
42.4 (12) |
143.7 (15) |
Coming from behind to force overtime against the Jets was a big
lift for New England, but losing the game anyway in extra time
has put them in a precarious spot in the AFC playoff race. The
upcoming game against Miami is very close to a must win for New
England. In order to accomplish that they will have to find a
way to get Moss the ball before there is only 5 seconds left in
the game.
Stat:
the defense is allowing opponents
to score TD’s on 62% of their trips to the red zone (29th). |
|
15 |
 |
0.24 |
6-4 |
43.4 (11) |
135 (16) |
Unfortunately, the loss at home to Denver puts a serious damper
on Atlanta’s chance to contend for the NFC South division title,
and on their chances of making it to the playoffs. There aren’t
any glaring deficiencies on this team, but they lack experience
in tight games on and on the road. There is still plenty of
opportunity to get back into contention, but the question is
will the youth on the team be able to step up and make big plays
when they need it?
Stat:
the offense is scoring
TD’s on only 44% of its trips to the red zone (28th) |
|
16 |
 |
0.01 |
5.5-4.5 |
38.1 (15) |
126.7 (17) |
By
tying Cincinnati in an atrocious performance last week
Philadelphia sealed their fate of watching the playoffs on the
couch this year. McNabb and the aerial attack have been unable
to step up and win games while Westbrook is recovering from
injury, which he clearly still is. The defense has to be fairly
disappointed as they have put their team in position to win
games time and again this year only to watch the offense come up
short.
Stat:
Philadelphia is the only other team
besides the Giants to have its offense (7th) and defense (8th)
ranked inside the top 10. |
|
17 |
 |
-0.01 |
5-5 |
41.9 (13) |
102.7 (21) |
As
bad as the loss was in Green Bay, Chicago should still be
feeling optimistic about its chances to reach the playoffs. They
are 3-1 in their division and still have a home game against
Green Bay. The key will be getting Orton to heal and get the
offense back to where it was for most of the year, which really
takes the pressure off of the defense to play a perfect game.
Stat:
the defense is allowing opponents to convert
just 35% of their third down attempts (7th). |
|
18 |
 |
-0.06 |
5-5 |
41.4 (14) |
97.5 (22) |
That
was the best game this year for Green Bay, and it came at a very
convenient time. The question is whether it was a fluke or not
for both the run attack and run defense to perform so well.
Those two areas have been holding the rest of the team back
since the season began, and consistent improvement in those
areas would quickly make Green Bay the favorite to win the NFC
North.
Stat:
the defense has allowed opponents only
78 first downs passing (1st). |
|
19 |
 |
-0.10 |
4-6 |
31 (22) |
146.1 (13) |
It
is probably too late for them to still make the playoffs, but
you wouldn’t know that from watching this team play. Were sure
Browns fans have to be mulling over the 4th quarters in their
last 3 games as only a couple of plays separates this team from
4-6 and 6-4. It is worth noting that Crennel is taking a lot of
heat for that difference.
Stat:
the offense is
gaining just 6 yards per pass attempt (28th). |
|
20 |
 |
-0.19 |
5-5 |
32.9 (19) |
122.2 (18) |
If
the Browns coach is on the hot seat for his teams’ performance
right now, then coach Childress’ pants are already on fire.
Looking ahead at Minnesota’s schedule finds that it is unlikely
he will find a fire extinguisher in time to save the team’s
season and his job.
Stat:
Minnesota is out rushing
its opponents by 66 yards a game (3rd). |
|
21 |
 |
-0.32 |
4-6 |
32.1 (21) |
105.4 (20) |
The
extremely disappointed fans of this team have given up on the
season and are now trying to figure out who is to blame. Fred
Taylor? Garrard? Del Rio? Our question is if the team has now
given up as well. Leading at halftime made the loss to rival
Tennessee just that much tougher to stomach, and looking at the
remaining schedule will not aide an already queasy stomach.
Stat:
Jacksonville has the highest time of
possession (32:08) of any team under .500. |
|
22 |
 |
-0.44 |
5-5 |
32.4 (20) |
85.3 (25) |
Going back to last year, New Orleans is 10-4 when they are able
to rush the ball for more than 100 yards, and are 2-10 when they
do not. Unfortunately for them that means in 26 games they have
only been able to surpass the century mark on the ground
slightly better than half the time. This goes to show that no
matter how well they throw the football, they cannot
consistently win games without the run. This is something the
coaching staff refuses to learn.
Stat: the offense
is gaining 6.3 yards per play (1st). |
|
23 |
 |
-0.48 |
5-5 |
30.3 (23) |
90 (23) |
Wow,
has Buffalo fallen. The fashion is which they are losing games
only makes it that much more heartbreaking for fans, who some of
which were talking about a serious playoff run back in October.
We had thought the offense would shore up its turnover problems,
but they certainly did not, and those gifts made to Cleveland
single handedly allowed them to win that game.
Stat:
the offense has committed 22 turnovers (T-31st). |
|
24 |
 |
-0.55 |
4-6 |
28 (24) |
89.8 (24) |
If
you did not believe us last week, the combination of Denver
winning and San Diego losing last week should have convinced you
that this team will not be playing football in January. It has
been a very tough season for the team, as this is the 3rd time
this season they have lost by less than a FG in the last minute
of the game.
Stat:
the offense is converting 46% of
its third down attempts (6th). |
|
25 |
 |
-0.77 |
2-8 |
17.2 (29) |
113.3 (19) |
Someone on the team needs to figure out that the first half
consists of two quarters. In their last three losses St. Louis
has been outscored in the second quarter by a count of 3-75.
That just plain sucks. In the remaining quarters they are a much
more competitive 32-41.
Stat:
St. Louis is the only
team to be ranked in the bottom three in both offense (30th) and
defense (31st). |
|
26 |
 |
-1.09 |
3-7 |
21.1 (26) |
42.2 (27) |
Another game, another lost turnover battle. Sure it was only 1
turnover at the end of a high scoring game, but it was on a
potential game winning drive. The defense has to figure out a
way to not only stop teams, but to create some short field
opportunities for the offense by forcing turnovers.
Stat:
Houston has a -13 turnover margin (32nd). |
|
27 |
 |
-1.12 |
2-8 |
19.9 (27) |
42.6 (26) |
Given how poorly the offense played, Oakland fans should look at
it as a positive that they very nearly defeated Miami. The
running game has not been consistent, but that isn’t the
problem. It’s the passing game that is struggling so badly it
allows opposing defenses to key solely on the run. Until that
changes the offense won’t be going anywhere.
Stat: the offense is ranked 31st overall. |
|
28 |
 |
-1.14 |
3-7 |
23.3 (25) |
21.9 (31) |
A
win puts San Francisco at 4 games under .500 and moves them into
second place in the NFC West, making them the last team standing
in the way of Arizona from clinching the division. Thinking
about that must only make their fans that much more upset about
the opportunities that have been squandered this season.
Stat:
the defense has allowed 8 pass plays to go
for over 40 yards (T-30th). |
|
29 |
 |
-1.26 |
2-8 |
18 (28) |
31.7 (28) |
Talk
is of Seattle passing the torch to Arizona to carry as
powerhouse of their division. It seemed as if Seattle gave their
last effort to save their season in the second half of that
game, and in coming up short they are now completely broken. How
Holmgren can get the team to rally now is beyond us.
Stat:
the offense is gaining just 4.5 yards per
play (30th). |
|
30 |
 |
-1.39 |
1.5-8.5 |
15.9 (30) |
22.1 (30) |
On
the surface it’s hard for Cincinnati to feel too bad about
ending that game tied, but they had far more opportunities to
win that game than Philadelphia did and it must sting to know
they missed so many chances to double their win total for the
season. If there is anything this team can build on from here,
it is clearly the defense.
Stat:
the defense has
only 11 sacks to date (31st). |
|
31 |
 |
-1.44 |
1-9 |
14.2 (31) |
23.1 (29) |
In
each of their last 5 losses, Kansas city has won or tied the
turnover battle, making them 8-2 for the season in that
category. A large majority of the other 31 NFL teams wish they
could take care of the football as well as that, and be assured
that every team would have more than one win to show for it if
they did.
Stat:
the defense has allowed 15 rushes
to go for 20 or more yards (32nd). |
|
32 |
 |
-1.72 |
0-10 |
3 (32) |
1.2 (32) |
We
would like to be upbeat about their performance in Carolina, but
this isn’t the first time Detroit has nearly won a game on the
road this year. “Nearly wins” and “played well buts” don’t go
very far in the NFL. Jacksonville fell this week improving the
Detroit play of death to 8-1. Next up Carolina at Atlanta.
Stat:
Opposing quarterbacks have an average rating
of 109.5 against the defense (32nd). |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.