|
RK |
Team |
ITN-CB |
Record |
WG |
RP |
Notes |
| 1 |
 |
2.33 |
9-0 |
71.3 (1) |
252.5 (1) |
What will
it take to stop Tennessee? They have won on the road, at home,
when they can’t pass, when they can’t run, and even when they
turn the ball over. They have yet, however, to play a team that
was ranked higher than 10th coming into that week (Chicago
wk10). That isn’t likely to change until week 16 when they host
Pittsburgh, meaning Tennessee has a good chance to enter that
game at 14-0. Stat: 6 pass-TD (T32nd) | 16 rush-TD (1st). |
| 2 |
 |
1.76 |
8-1 |
61.3 (3) |
221.7 (3) |
Ever since
we called out their defense for failing to create turnovers
(back in week 6), the G-men have churned out 10 interceptions
and 3 fumbles. Numbers like those combined with their #1 rated
rush attack make them almost impossible to beat regardless of
how Manning plays. Stat: TOP 34:06 (2nd). |
| 3 |
 |
1.52 |
6-3 |
69.1 (2) |
156.3 (7) |
With all
of their remaining NFC East games to be played at home along
with road trips to Cincinnati and San Francisco, Washington is
easily the favorite to grab the #5 seed in the NFC. It will take
some better performances from an offense that has averaged only
15 points a game in their last 4 appearances. Most of that
trouble has come from squandering opportunities in the red zone.
Stat: defense has allowed only 2 rushes to go over 20 yards
(T3rd). |
| 4 |
 |
1.14 |
6-3 |
39.7 (12) |
235.2 (2) |
Whatever the reason for them, the interceptions need to stop. In
their last two home games the offense has given up 7 picks, yet
they have lost by only 11 points. Heck if they were to keep it
to only 2 picks a game they likely defeat the Giants and the
Colts. Hard to blame Parker’s absence as Moore has proven to be
a solid running back. Stat: defense is allowing 5.6 yards per
pass attempt (1st). |
| 5 |
 |
0.76 |
7-2 |
41.4 (9) |
178.2 (5) |
That
wasn’t the most inspiring road trip to Oakland, but it was a win
nonetheless. Still, the Panthers have lost the turnover battle
in 3 of their 4 road trips, and the only one they didn’t lose
was a tie. With upcoming road trips to ATL, GB, NYG, and NO,
Carolina will need to turn that around. Stat: the defense is
allowing opponents TD’s on only 38% of their trips to the red
zone (3rd). |
| 6 |
 |
0.68 |
6-3 |
40.9 (10) |
169.5 (6) |
It is
possible that Tampa Bay’s RB roster will look like this on
Sunday: W. Dunn, E. Graham, and C. Williams. Gruden’s philosophy
is that you can’t have too much depth at running back, and we
have to agree. The happiest man in Tampa might be Garcia, who
must relish the idea of defenses having to worry so much about
the RB trio. Stat: the defense is allowing only opponents only
15 first downs per game (3rd). |
| 7 |
 |
0.64 |
6-3 |
49 (4) |
128.9 (11) |
The
defense led Ravens are now tied for first place in the AFC North
with the Steelers. Flacco had his 4th consecutive game without a
pick, and over that span the Ravens are scoring more than 33
points a game while allowing just less than 16, a margin of 17
points per game. Scary. Stat: the offense rushes the ball 57% of
the time, which is the most in the league. |
| 8 |
 |
0.54 |
5-4 |
32.3 (19) |
189.4 (4) |
The Colts
enter the top ten for the first time this year with a very big
road win over the Steelers. They are starting to get healthy and
it is showing. What should worry the rest of the AFC is that
they are above .500 while averaging less than 70 yards a game on
the ground. If Indianapolis can improve that even a little…Stat:
the defense is allowing opponents to convert 48% of their third
down attempts (30th). |
| 9 |
 |
0.46 |
6-3 |
40.1 (11) |
145 (8) |
The Jets
kept pace with New England by demolishing St. Louis at home. The
running game is averaging 123 yards per game now and has come a
long way since week six when they were gaining only 86 yards per
game on the ground. Someone should notify Favre, who has thrown
six picks during the improvement. Stat: the offense has
converted 89% (8 of 9) of its 4th down attempts (1st). |
|
10 |
 |
0.45 |
6-3 |
45.3 (5) |
121 (14) |
Atlanta offense: “Allow us to introduce to your defense M.
Turner, who has 890 yards, a 4.4 yard per carry average and 7
TDs. This is his wingman, J. Norwood, who has 365 yards, a 5.7
yard per carry average and 2 TDs. Don’t forget about their QB,
M. Ryan who has 1909 yards, a 7.6 yard per attempt average, 11
TDs and only 5 INTs. Next is, hey, why are you crying?” Stat:
the defense is allowing opponents to score on only 70% of their
trips to the red zone (1st). |
|
11 |
 |
0.41 |
5-4 |
39.1 (13) |
142.6 (9) |
Sure
Pennington threw a pick-six that allowed Seattle to stay in that
game, but that is only the 7th turnover of the year for Miami,
which is good enough to lead the league. The fact they were able
to win the game even with the mistake is a very good sign for
them. Stat: the offense is scoring TD’s on 62% of its trips to
the red zone (5th). |
|
12 |
 |
0.35 |
6-3 |
41.7 (8) |
123.4 (13) |
The Pats
always seem to have an answer for injuries, but they are
certainly piling up. Also, we aren’t sold on all this talk about
the offense getting so much better and solving many of its
problems. They are scoring less than 20 points a game in their
last 3 appearances, which will not be enough to win games or the
division. Stat: the defense has allowed opponents only 38 first
downs by rushing the football (4th). |
|
13 |
 |
0.33 |
6-3 |
44.5 (6) |
108.6 (16) |
Raise your hand if you like your team’s chances given they have
to travel to Arizona in the playoffs. Exactly. It will be some
team’s task though, that we are sure of. They could have easily
resorted to the Cardinals of old on Monday night, but they
proved once again that this year is going to be different. Stat:
Arizona is 1st or 2nd in the league in all of the following –
1st downs gained, completion %, yards per attempt, passing TDs,
red zone trips allowed, and red zone TDs scored. |
|
14 |
 |
0.15 |
5-4 |
42.5 (7) |
93.6 (21) |
Seeing their defense play so well against the Titans made
watching the offense only that much more painful. Not all of the
blame can be put on Grossman, the O-line and Forte have to take
some of the heat for failing to move the football. Stat:
opponents have attempted 375 passes against the defense (most in
the league). |
|
15 |
 |
0.11 |
5-4 |
39 (14) |
104 (17) |
Being 0-3 in their division and just as importantly 4-4 in their
conference is not going to help Philadelphia make the playoffs.
With games to be played @BAL, @NYG, and @WAS, the offense does
not have time to wait for Westbrook to be 100%. Stat: the
offense is rushing the ball just 39% of the time (27th). |
|
16 |
 |
0.06 |
5-4 |
29.4 (21) |
138.8 (10) |
Are the
Cowboys forgotten? They will be if they lose in Washington this
week. It is almost a guarantee that a 10-6 record will be needed
to make the playoffs in the NFC this year, and a loss would put
the Dallas loss count at 5, and also leave them behind in many
of the tiebreakers. That means they would have to go at worst
3-1 against the likes of @PIT, NYG, BAL, and @PHI. Good luck.
Stat: the offense is converting 48% of its third down attempts
(1st). |
|
17 |
 |
-0.10 |
5-4 |
33.3 (16) |
101.5 (18) |
Even
though they squeaked out the win against Green Bay, the massive
squandering of resources by Minnesota continued. They had triple
the rushing yards (220-74), double the total yards (361-184),
and had 2 safeties of the Green Bay offense, but only won the
game by a single point. Childress may have won his first game
against the Pack, but is probably one game closer to his last.
Stat: the offense has only 9 TDs in their 24 trips to the red
zone (29th). |
|
18 |
 |
-0.19 |
5-4 |
28.1 (22) |
112.8 (15) |
We’ll give them some credit for the come from behind win at
Cleveland, but we have to wonder how much of that was the Browns
doing. The defense is still mighty porous and the turnover
margin is atrocious, all while their running backs fall like
leaves on a windy November day. Stat: the defense gives up 5.1
yards per carry (31st). |
|
19 |
 |
-0.19 |
5-4 |
32.3 (18) |
94.5 (20) |
The only
thing more cupcake than the recent Buffalo offense is their
upcoming schedule. Their next three games are against CLE, @KC,
and home again for SF. Talk about opportunity to get back in the
race. Stat: the offense is gaining just 3.6 yards per carry on
the ground (29th). |
|
20 |
 |
-0.23 |
4-5 |
33 (17) |
85.9 (22) |
Jacksonville did a very good job taking care of Detroit on the
road, but that is where the good news ends. They will need to be
at least 9-7 to make the playoffs, and with games against TEN,
@CHI, IND, and @BAL, they are on the outside looking in. Stat:
the defense is allowing opponents to score TDs on 69% of their
visits to the red zone (31st). |
|
21 |
 |
-0.31 |
4-5 |
36.3 (15) |
61.6 (25) |
The loss
of middle linebacker N. Barnett might be the nail in the coffin
for Green Bay. The run defense is already one of the worst in
the league and has cost them dearly, which is a shame because
their secondary is the best in the league. Stat: the defense is
allowing only 5.7 yards per pass attempt (2nd) and has created
16 interceptions (1st). |
|
22 |
 |
-0.36 |
4-5 |
29.5 (20) |
84 (23) |
It is very
perplexing that Rivers and the aerial attack are having such a
great year without helping Tomlinson and the ground game. We
have given up trying to figure it out because we have figured
something else out: San Diego is not going to make the playoffs.
Stat: the offense has just scored only 4 TDs on the ground
(T31st). |
|
23 |
 |
-0.41 |
3-6 |
24.5 (24) |
100.2 (19) |
A
quarterback controversy, back to back blown 4th quarter leads,
and accusations of quitting from players against their own
teammates have Cleveland in turmoil. To consider them a done
deal would be quite dangerous though. Just ask the defending
Super Bowl champions. Stat: the defense is giving up 21 first
downs a game (29th). |
|
24 |
 |
-0.42 |
2-7 |
17.6 (29) |
128.8 (12) |
This team
misses S. Jackson, badly. The defense needs all the help it can
get, and that includes the offense being able to string together
some decent length drives. With Jackson still looking
questionable to return, they have to hope RB’s A. Pittman and K.
Darby can step it up. Stat: the offense is averaging only 13
first downs per game (32nd). |
|
25 |
 |
-0.54 |
4-5 |
27.7 (23) |
68.4 (24) |
The Saints
have not solved any of their problems, or maybe they are just
refusing to admit that they have problems. Either way the result
is that they are going to miss the playoffs again. Stat: the
pass offense is outgaining the rush offense by 235 yards a game
(unheard of). |
|
26 |
 |
-1.04 |
3-6 |
21.1 (25) |
32.6 (27) |
Houston has officially come back to Earth. The silly thing about
the massive amount of turnovers they are committing is that
their offense is good enough to move the ball without forcing
things. Stat: the defense has allowed opponents to convert 100%
(7 of 7) of their 4th down attempts. |
|
27 |
 |
-1.04 |
2-7 |
19.7 (26) |
37.9 (26) |
Given the turmoil of the season, the shutout loss to Atlanta the
week before, and being without their starting RB and starting
QB, we have to give Oakland some credit for playing a tough
game. Stat: the offense is converting just 22% of their third
down attempts (32nd). |
|
28 |
 |
-1.20 |
2-7 |
18.6 (27) |
23 (28) |
How bad
are things on offense? J. Carlson, their TE, is the leading
fantasy player on the team. Hope may be on the way as Hasselbeck
and Branch are expected to return to the lineup this week. Stat:
the ground game has 10 rushes of twenty yards or more (4th). |
|
29 |
 |
-1.26 |
2-7 |
18.3 (28) |
16 (31) |
Down by five. Fourth and goal on the two
yard line. Four seconds on the clock. Chance to knock off rival
and division leader Arizona. The football is hiked and the
handoff goes to M. Robinson. Wait. Who? Was F. Gore injured?
Nope. Did they score?
Nope. Was that a ballsy call? Nope.
It was just dumb. Stat: the offense has had 34 pass plays go for
twenty or more yards (T2nd). |
|
30 |
 |
-1.37 |
1-8 |
13.5 (31) |
23 (29) |
The
Bengals are coming off their first win in ’08 with plenty of
rest from their bye week, so things are looking up. Wrong. They
host Philadelphia who is desperate for a win, followed by back
to back games against co-division leaders Pittsburgh and
Baltimore. Sorry Ocho-cinco, no 8-8 for you, one year! Stat: the
offense is gaining just 4 yards per play (32nd). |
|
31 |
 |
-1.38 |
1-8 |
14.2 (30) |
18.1 (30) |
The Chiefs
are getting pretty good at almost winning games. T. Thigpen is
looking like a reliable option at QB, and Johnson should return
to the lineup this week. Maybe then they can finally take
advantage of their +9 turnover margin. Stat: the defense is
giving up 5.2 yards per carry (32nd). |
|
32 |
 |
-1.66 |
0-9 |
3.2 (32) |
1.3 (32) |
Let’s try to look at things with a more positive light. Detroit
is now 7-1 at playing so poorly that the opponent who beats them
loses their next game. The only team able to avoid that fate was
Houston when they got to host Cincinnati the week after
pummeling the Lions. Stat: the offense has converted 69% (11 of
16) of their red zone trips into TDs (3rd). |
We had hyped up week 3 pre-season as a good week to bet on, and right
before the Pick Six came out we downgraded it to a neutral week for
betting. This is the strength of the dual ranking system, as it knows
when volatility and the current NFL schedule are going to clash and make
for some messy results. The week indeed was a tough one, but the Pick
Six never wavered and pulled out a 4-2 record, moving it to 13-5 (72%)
on the year. Here are the results for NFL week 3.
Sweetness. When we saw the odds come out last Monday evening we knew
our Pick Six for NFL week 2 was going to have a great chance at pulling
in a profit. The public misconception on the Oakland and Tennessee games
was blatant to our system and we made sure the Pick Six took advantage
of it. The 3-0 result from those 2 games alone was enough to guarantee
profit for the week.
Looking ahead to NFL week 3 we don't want to get overly excited over
the results of this week. Normally week 3 is one of the better early
season weeks to bet on, but as always we will have to see how the
odds-makers and public view things before we will know for sure. We are
working hard to get our picks out early on Tuesday this week, so that
our Members can make full use of any early in the week odds. If you want
to read up on odds and how public opinion can swing games, we suggest
you read through the posts on our affiliated blog,
'A bettor wager'.
As we expected, week 1 was going to be a tough week to figure out.
Overall on our 48 predictions we went a straight .500, 24-24. But the
power of the system already shows up in the Pick Six, where we went a
nice 4-2 and picked up profit to start the season. From here on out the
picks will only get better as each team gets more games under their
belt. We hope you have been doing your reading on how to make it a
winning season in 2008! If not we suggest you look at
A bettor wager and at our
article
NFL picks transformed into winning
bets.